Geopolitics Takes Center Stage as Markets Enter 2026

Dubai, 20 January 2026

Financial markets are entering 2026 under a familiar but intensified strain: the growing dominance of geopolitics over price discovery. Markets have always priced uncertainty, therefore, the presence of risk itself is not new. However, the speed and breadth with which political narratives now reverberate across asset classes, causing increased cautionary measures.

A convergence of softening US economic data, the onset of earnings season, and a widening geopolitical risk premium have left investors navigating a market landscape that is increasingly reactive to headlines rather than fundamentals. From renewed discussions around US-Greenland acquisition ambitions to regime reformation risks in the Middle East following the fall of Venezuela’s Maduro, and the unresolved tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the global backdrop is unusually dense with political fault lines.

These pressures are emerging at a moment when asset prices are already extended. Gold remains elevated well above historic thresholds surpassing the 4,500 level, silver is advancing in a steep exponential structure, crude oil has rebounded toward the 60 level amid rising hedging demand, and US equity indices are testing record highs with a visible loss of momentum. Even the US dollar, widely expected to soften amid rate-cut speculation, is holding steady as it continues to draw support from haven demand. The result is a market where volatility has become structural.

In such conditions, traditional directional conviction is losing its edge. Markets are being shaped less by linear economic narratives and more by sudden shifts in political tone, forcing investors to prioritise risk containment over prediction.

“Periods like this expose the limits of pure forecasting,” says Razan Hilal, Market Analyst, CMT at FOREX.com. “When price action is stretched and headlines can reverse sentiment overnight, disciplined exposure and scenario planning become more valuable than being ‘right’ on direction.”

This shift is visible across asset classes. Precious metals, long regarded as beneficiaries of geopolitical anxiety, are displaying increasingly steep price trajectories. Silver’s dual role as both a monetary and industrial asset has drawn particular attention, advancing toward triple-digit territory, but exponential trends come with heightened drawdown risk. Late-cycle momentum entries can be unforgiving, placing renewed emphasis on position sizing, selective engagement, and clearly defined exit levels.

Crude oil, meanwhile, illustrates the tension between short-term geopolitical disruption and longer-term structural forces. Despite renewed price strength driven by supply concerns and shipping route risks, the broader multi-year framework remains constrained. Recent advances appear more consistent with counter-trend hedging behaviour than with a confirmed shift in the underlying supply narrative.

Equities tell a similarly cautious story. US indices remain near record territory – 50,000 for the Dow, 26,300 for the Nasdaq, 7,000 for the S&P 500, and 20 for the MSCI UAE -, yet divergence signals, particularly from technology-heavy benchmarks, suggest growing fragility. As capital rotates toward defensive assets, echoes of earlier drawdown phases are becoming harder to ignore. Stability above key technical thresholds is increasingly viewed as a prerequisite for confidence, rather than a given.

“What primarily emerges from this environment is a call for restraint,” says Hilal. She adds: “Investors are being forced to revisit fundamentals of capital preservation: defined invalidation levels, multi-timeframe alignment, and hedging strategies designed to absorb volatility. In headline-sensitive markets, opportunity and risk expand together. Those able to operate with flexibility, adjusting exposure as narratives evolve, are better positioned to navigate the months ahead.”

As 2026 unfolds, the central challenge for markets may not be deciphering the next geopolitical headline, but managing the cumulative weight of all of them. In that sense, risk management becomes the primary directional strategy moving forward into the year ahead.

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