Labor market changes, energy pressure and inflation data awaited

Markets started the week on a relatively calm note, gold continued its climb above $3,750 per ounce as demand for safe-haven assets remains strong, while U.S. equities held steady near record highs. This early calm is contingent on the awaited inflation data from Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) at the end of the week, which could represent a turning point in market expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate path in the coming months.
On the other hand, geopolitical and economic developments are adding further complexity to the landscape. The U.S. administration’s announcement of raising the H-1B visa fee to $100,000 marks a significant shift in the high-skilled labor market, particularly within the technology sector. This move could increase pressure on major tech companies that rely on foreign engineers and developers, pushing labor costs higher and compressing profit margins, potentially slowing innovation. For markets, this policy change is not just an immigration matter but a factor that could directly impact valuations of tech giants, and by extension, overall sentiment on Wall Street, which has become closely tied to the sector’s performance.
In energy markets, Iraq is drawing attention after moves to restart the export pipeline between Kurdistan and Turkey, with exports rising to more than 3.4 million barrels per day. While this boosts Baghdad’s revenues, it raises the risk of oversupply at a time when global demand may soften due to slowing economic activity and the growing competition from alternative energy sources. Any imbalance between supply and demand could trigger volatility in oil prices during the last quarter of 2025, adding another layer of uncertainty for investors and policymakers.
In summary, global markets trade with a mix of cautious calm and underlying pressures from monetary policy, changes in the U.S. labor market, and energy market risks, making investment outlooks increasingly dependent on how these elements interact without disrupting the current fragile stability.